Wednesday, January 19, 2011
time to get out of stocks
europe headwinds increasing, us state austerity nearing, already had a nice pre-earnings rally, financial earnings mixed at best... that's why. SPX at 1290... get flat!
Friday, December 17, 2010
Dec 16 Chat
09:03:03 ME : yo
09:03:50 FRIEND 3 : you're bloody right! mkt pricing us turning the corner, hope it's not into a blind ally!
09:06:26 ME : imagine, if i were prop trading at {}, your bonus pool would be bigger!!
09:07:11 FRIEND 3 : i'd like that
09:09:43 ME : i believe we will eventually have another bond rally, but in the near term you underestimate the power of the propaganda systems to perpetuate the 'recovery' meme
09:09:59 FRIEND 3 : i do
09:10:28 ME : the market psychology game has been an important factor
remember 'green shoots'?
that was a coordinated campaign
including he white house/fiscal apparatus
09:11:19 FRIEND 3 : green shoots shrivelled!
09:11:46 ME : how can you possibly view tax cuts/spending increase as anything other than Fiscal Stimulus Act 2.0 (or 3.0 or whatever number you want to put on it)
yes
because the economic structure is broken
its like transfusing blood into a body whose main arteries have been lacerated
the blood is indeed in the body for some period of time
it is pouring out onto the sidewalk
eventually
09:12:59 FRIEND 3 : that's why i feel like 2011 will be a repeat of 2010
09:13:10 ME : i thought you'd like that metaphor
well, 09-10
green shoots was spring-summer 09
alot of talk about 'second derivatives' from the zombie teleprompter readers on cnbc
: like they ever took a math class in their lives!!
anyway
in the short term, you'll get all the economic weathermen on the street to update their forecasts and talk about gdp growth
blah blah
09which has already happened
some very motivated folks will even talk about sustainable recovery
without going too far into the weeds on that one!
but job growth will not materialize
deleveraging will continue
of course, both are devastating to housing and commercial real estate
ultimately pressuring the banks
i believe the japan corollary will hold
because the dollar is not in significant threat as reserve currency
lots of brinksmanship
but ultimately smoke and no fire
or light but no heat
or whatever the phraseology is
BECAUSE THAT IS GAME OVER
the economists will miss the withering shoots yet again, because they overlook the structural bankruptcy of the country and therefore miss the psychological need to save rather than spend, and then when we turn, it's too late
and as your boy conceded monday night - that group is blinded by incentive systems and groupthink
so, very important to know what the groupthink is
and not get too far in front of it
its way too early after the whole 'rah rah, gdp will go up' from the tax cut/fiscal stim to buy bonds
09:21:23 FRIEND 3 : ‘my boy’ get's the delvering thingy....he and i spoken at great length about this, but he says it's very hard to forecast what impact it will have, and how he uses it is to temper growth forecasts due to perceptions of further extensive delivering
09:21:46 ME : ultimately anyone looking at the situation as a recession from a baseline of 2005-2006 has absolutely zero understanding of the economy
seriously
meaning most wishful thinking politicians and sell side strategists/economists/ media shills
09:22:24 FRIEND 3 : what you mean?
09:22:40 ME : this is (at least) a 30yr story playing out
robbing from the future to 'juice' the present WHILE THE PRESENT FUNDAMENTALS ARE DETERIORATING
has been happening for at least 30 years
we live in an industrial / post industrial world
wealth comes from additional understanding of already complexly understood technologies etc
09:24:01 FRIEND 3 : we are about to live in a post consumer world...that is my greateest fear. at least i know how to skin a goat!
09:24:06 ME : but look at the education league tables of the last 30 years
and graph the u.s.
yes
look at the florida
that's what social unrest looks like in the u.s.
09:25:22 FRIEND 3 : if you were a real estate developer in florida florida
09:25:28 ME : guy railed against the 'financial terrorists and corrupted government' and then went to shoot his local school board
09:25:39 FRIEND 3 : oh that guy, right
09:25:54 ME : i mean, his critique is pretty accurate
for an addled dude
strategy for change flawed
but probably will see more of that
people just snapping
if i were a real estate developer in florida
09:28:15 FRIEND 3 : it never ceases to amaze me how a little be of good news can cause us to take our eye of the real problem...even for most economists....as long as we can meet service payments we seem to ignore structural problems until it's too late...have you read any of the stuff on greece. it's shocking. the scale of insolvency is brutal
09:28:36 ME : dude, its worse here right now than it is in greece
looking at just u.s.
with fannie and freddie its already worse
debt/gdp
09:29:16 FRIEND 3 : that's why greece
09:29:26 ME : it absolutely is
except the dollar is the reserve currency
and the fed is printing money
09:29:59 FRIEND 3 : i read recently that the public bus system has 8 drivers for every bus!!
the service it provides is not transport, it's jobs
09:29:59 ME : in effect, monetizing the chinese's inability to ultimately float the currency
china is not dumb
i mean, they're fascist
but not dumb
if they float the yuan
manufacturing picks up and moves to bangladesh /rural vietnam
etc
and large social movements are more recent in chinese history than the u.s.
meaning gov't existential risk
09:31:27 FRIEND 3 : we all operate on the lesser evil approach...at least we are not as bad as so and so....but we are worse!
09:31:30 ME : meaning actual life existential riosk for the establishment folk
its a slicker machine here, for sure
let me ask you a framing fundamental question
can china float the yuan?
no, of course not
09:46:28 FRIEND 3 : let me answer!
09:46:28 ME : so, what wil they have to do with their dollar surplus?
ok, take a shot at it
J
09:48:04 FRIEND 3 : no, if they do they end up with a bubble greater than the one the have...akin to japan 1985-1999 after the plaza accord...taht destryied japan....so they know in reality their reserves are worthless, but nonethe less and important part of domestic chinese economic policy. they can afford to do nothing with them
09:48:23 ME : exactly
09:48:34 FRIEND 3 : phew...i was half expecting and WRONG!
09:48:34 ME : although i don;t think they will have a b ubble
your conclusion is right
but they would not have a greater bubble, they would have systemic collapse
(though perhaps they would attempt to flight that off by printing money like all good banana republics)
09:50:02 FRIEND 3 : they are extremely afraid of that...the foxcomm thing frightened the cr@p out of beijing ....beijing
09:50:33 ME : i mean, has to be that way
interesting angle on this is the gamesmanship between the creditor nations
do they take their dollar surpluses and sell the USD to buy their competitors currency?
that's a smart strategy
for instance, if you wer echina, shouldn;t you be buying KRW?
but then the koreans would need to defned their own currency and in turn 1) spend their non dollar reserves on usd
and/or 2) print krw
like insect repellent
i'm completely brainstorming right now
but like where this is going
we need some anecdotal data on what is happening
ther ehas to be some short term brinksmanship here
between the creditor/producer nations
inside of the larger longer term framework of needing to preserve the usd
you can’t tip the dollar over
they all have that interest
until enough demand is created in the rest of the world oto offset the u.s.
(really, the western markets)
IF these guys are actually interested in that (a big IF, in my mind)
then they absolutely should be pursuing middle class building policies
secure the raw materials access
which at the very least china has been doing
build the productive capacity
and build the end demand
i am sceptical about the end part
because they need to share the gains from trade with the workers
and China
think Foxconn
so, i think we can conclude this is a pretty long game
we're not near the end
meaning the dollar will be the reserve currency
the complicating piece in the near term is the rollover of the massive expiring debts in the developed world
you've got to think the Fed is a little bit crafty, right?
this is the stuff they think about
all the time
hopefully
presumably
even from a sinister 'preserve the establishment' agenda
so if they are crafty
they let the economy hit another soft patch
which is inevitable even now
after the dose of stimulus wears off
(mortgage rates up 100bps)
that is where they can credibly come in and say, 'we need to fight deflation'
10:01:49 FRIEND 3 : you are on a roll dude
10:02:00 ME : so, better economic numbers in the short term
leads fed to say 'we're done after qe2'
which probably hurts gold
more than anything else
because you lose the 'structural collapse alternative currency probability'
as well as the 'runaway money printing'
i think you could see a flattening of the curve
as the market takes the economic improvement and prices in a rate hike
which keeps the bond vigilantes quiet
stocks are still constrained by a lack of revenue growth
after the stimulus effects passs through the system and more soft data is realized, then the fed can come back in and print
if they want to actually look smart
which is the hard thing to discount
don’t know how much brainpower they have there
or how much they care about looking smart
even if they are thinking this
but all of that makes a heck of a lot of sense to me
the reality is the ultilmate problem is not monetary policy
(although monetary policy is compounding the original problems and has historically prevented working on the real problems)
at this point, continuing to do that can be rationalized as 'buying us some time'
but no one is talking about really addressing the fundamental issues in that time
given the corrupted political apparatus
which is why i am ultimately bearish
only the most nebulous 'we must make education a priority'
which is true
but i think that’s a circularity without systemic collapse
the people may need a systemic collapse to shake them out of their slumber
hard to say
given anecdotes like florida
tea party
general anti-incumbency
and consumer deleveraging
voluntary AND involuntary
complicating factor you could shed light on - what's the likely europe stochastic?
ECB prints money?
EFSF gets funding from the fiscal authorites of member states large enough to bail out all the periphery for 3-5 years?
where pension system assets are pledged against new loans?
(to me, this is criminal)
but isn’t that what just happened in ireland
10:13:59 FRIEND 3 : that's how you tackle the pension problem...force it to buy bad assets!
10:18:28 ME : K
things that need to be incorporated: europe scenarios and u.s.
let me ask you another question -
if the fed came out tomorrow and said, we will not do any more QE because the fiscal authorities are stepping up stimulus
what would the bond market do?
stocks?
dollar?
10:25:14 FRIEND 3 : ask me one on cricket
honestly without QE i think bonds would rally and stocks would PUUUUuuuuke
10:27:58 ME : agreed
if the stated goal of QE2 was to reduce long term interest rates
shouldn;t they do this then?
10:28:42 FRIEND 3 : it did puzzle me why the fed would use their last available tool without things being totally helpless
10:28:45 ME :
well, it did appear as though there was no way the fiscal authorities would get anything done
given the tea party republican momentum
and the data was turning down
at the time they were thinking about it (probably july)
definitely by early august
it appeared to be the only option
now i think they’re thinking, lets go double barreled and try to avoid japanese outcome
even using richard koo's ‘balance sheet recession’ terminology
but don’t they look at the underlying economic structure???
10:31:24 FRIEND 3 : the last time things got so global destabilized....didnt we have a world...dont mention the war!
10:32:18 ME : DUDE, WE ARE ALREADY IN TWO WARS!!!
anything you have on europe and the u.s.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Where is your line in the sand??
07:29:53 *** FRIEND 1 ()
(BN) Americans in Poll Want Deficit Cut With Entitlements Secured
… looks like class warfare.
07:30:47 ME
you don't think outsourcing all manufacturing jobs was class war?
you don't think the bush tax cuts were class war??
you don’t think 40% of gdp in finance was class war?
you don’t think quantitative easing is class war?
jeez, dude
how about 100% regulatory captured government?
not a form of class war?
how about finance sector monetizing the greenspan/bernanke put?
not class war?
you ever price up a long dated at-the-money option??
come on man
TARP wasn’t class war?
not paying out a peace dividend wasn’t a form of class war??
07:37:34 FRIEND 1 : I am not a fan of Bush, but mistakes were made by both sides of Congress and the regulators. It is not about looking back, but forward. You can argue it is not fair, but who is going to pay for all the entitlements? There are not enough rich people.
07:37:47 ME : its not about looking back??
fraud can’t be prosecuted?
war crimes can’t be prosecuted?
can i do anything i want and when the police come, I can just say "its not about looking back???"
LOL
how can you situate any development in the NARRATIVE OF REALITY
WITHOUT LOOKING BACK??
THE TRADE AGREEMENTS ARE CLASS WAR
THE HEALTH CARE LAW IS CLASS WAR
07:39:23 FRIEND 1 : you are not going to raise the revenue needed. I am not
against punishing the guilty, but believe that the issue is about fiscal responsibility. Public sector unions own the politicians, and the tax payer is getting screwed
07:39:32 ME : STOP
BANKS OWN THE POLITICIANS
the stated intention of TARP was to get lending going again
how'd that go?
oh, didn’t happen
huh
crazy
Quantitative Easing was supposed to add jobs
HOW'D that go again?
huh
what a joke
07:41:10 FRIEND 1 : most has been paid back, and the financial system is functioning, albeit less than desired.
07:41:16 ME : how about instead of printing up more money to give to banks
you actually get it to the people?
there is 20% real unemployment in this country!
you want to give more money to the PIMCOs and Goldmans of the world?
incredible
the immorality is staggering
THE POINT PEOPLE ARE MAKING IS THE GOVERNMENT TAKES THE AVERAGE TAXPAYER"S MONEY AND GIVES IT TO CORRUPT SPECIAL INTERESTS
Halliburton in no-bid contracts and full engagement in the war theatre
Goldman Sachs in paying them out 100% on their private contracts
come on dude
its laughable that the gov't spends the money on the people
it is just not a credible assertion
surprised you buy into that propaganda
buying all the naked body scanners from MICHAEL CHERTOFF's company??
incredible
cutting taxes on the rich and large corporations, necessitating the issuance of bonds to the creditor class... who are the rich
to pay for the comfort of the establishment
and the extension of the empire in far flung locales
yeah
that’s all for the little guy
right
the little guy benefits from exxon getting oil servicing contracts in iraq
right
sure
what a total effing joke
what do you believe in, dude?
what are you willing to stand up for?
where is your line in the sand?
07:51:55 FRIEND 1 : my initial comment was an observation on the need to cut the deficit, without anyone wanting to share in the pain (rich or poor).
07:52:25 ME : and my point is there ALREADY has been alot of pain, born by the poor exclusively
but i guess if you're not willing to look back, then maybe you don’t know that
Thursday, December 9, 2010
what now?
08:29:01 *** FRIEND 3 () acknowledged the
chat request.
08:39:39 FRIEND 3 :
what you thinking here? i am thinking you hedge up everything until
your remaining pipeline between time x (when you would stop hedging
before year end) and year end equals 75% of your risk limits...then
run it into new year and add on further pullbacks...bank loan
pipelines wont close with the scale loan officers have been
saying...trying to preserve their bonuses...then the loans wont close
and the money will be released back to treasury
...once the money hits treasury, they will
lift bills, 2s, 3s and 5s. i think the big boys are going to eat the
dec28 5yr auction
08:50:06 ME : i am fearful of the clumsy heavy handed
gov'ts of the world doing one irrational thing after another
making it very difficult environment for risk
08:50:31 FRIEND 3 : we know they told their CEO's that the loan pipeline looks good in
the last quarter, we dont see the optimistic assumptions closing
08:50:36 ME : right
gotcha
in aggregate, why would cash rich corp
sector pay all the (presumably) negative carry to lever up?
i don't see that level of optimism
or even that level of cerebral capacity in
most of corporate world
frankly
08:52:39 FRIEND 3 : RIGHT! and the cash poor, is just that,
poor. and banks dont lend to the poor....anymore
08:53:18 ME : if the expectation of structural break is
lowered, cash balances will get deployed
one would think
first
pre re-leveraging
to me the interesting thing is how long
before the fed has to RAISE rates to actually reduce long term rates
or if they just will not do that
but i think we are going to get to that point
since we just saw the 'political process' at work
post g20
voting down the deficit reduction
in favor of 'reaganesque' chicanery
cut taxes AND increase spending!!
which has to rattle the bond market
hard to believe the house dems will lead the
fiscal responsibility charge here
meaning even larger deficits than currently projected
in a world where the fed's attempts at
monetization to lower long term rates has absolutely backfired
08:57:41 FRIEND 3 : sending you something that i wrote
yesterday but havent considered sending yet, would appreciate your
thoughts
08:57:51 ME : sure thing
so the gov't is determined to fight
deflation apparently, both the fiscal policy folks and monetary policy
folks
which in the short term has the potential to
pump up the propaganda about 'boost to gdp' yadda yadda
which we've just seen
but these things tend to last for a few months
early 2009 green shoots
et al
the backdrop is deleveraging
so the natural deflationary forces
gets translated to political angst
but gets voted back into the system
i'm just thinking out loud here
these stooges then bring 'tax cuts and spending'
who amongst those on the stage now is enough
of a leader to say 'we cannot take another dose of the heroin'
'we need austerity'
'which means we will have to be prepared to
nationalize the banks'
who will do this??
no one
not a single one of them
not even a bloomberg third party candidacy
something akin to that is likely
predictable esablishment response to the
rising disillusionment
i mean, bill gross wrote about the 'ben
bernank' video in his pimco monthly
09:07:35 ME : i think the question ultimately is how do
you get money into the real economy in some kind of virtuous cycle way
(eg, productive deployment/investment)
the 'lets use the banks as intermediaries'
has not worked at all
in fact one could argue it's backfired
since the 'wealth effect' from banks buying
up risk assets with the surplus liquidity is way, way overhyped
not sure how you get around the problem that
a gov't guarantee of bank loans is ultimately an additional claim on
the treasury
that would presumably come with some kind of
cbo-scored cost
meaning larger projected deficits and that
could also backfire and steepen the curve even further
09:11:19 FRIEND 3 : i hear you, it's riddled with big brother
issues and big government problems that have not worked up till now.
too many people have been stealing from public coffers for too long
and there's sh!tty infrastructure to show for it ....in healthcare,
education, roads, airports etc etc. the ports are great...because
americans can't be denied of their farting bush dolls from china
09:11:49 ME : we need the deflation
nothing else matters
everything else is pouring water into a broken cup
sure, you can point to water in the cup, as
long as you keep pouring
if you think about it - prices should have
come way down as we migrated production to china and the other sweat
shops of the world
replacing $20/hr american workers with
$1/day chinese workers
but they didn’t
:and there was no 'higher corp tax' on
additional income accruing to the offshoring entities, etc
09:14:02 FRIEND 3 10% deflation is bad, 1% deflation wouldn’t
be such a bad thing. saw richard koo speak on tuesday...and he said
japanese dont have a problem with 1% deflation....it helps them keep
rates low to keep the debt service low!!
09:14:42 ME : if you’re not going to target asset prices
on the way up, how can you on the way down???
thats a ponzi scheme
anyway
gov't spending which leads to expanded
manufacturing in china is a loser
another short term dose of heroin
point about juiced corp profits is how
much juice is there left in that trade??
09:16:30 FRIEND 3 : in my mind it all comes back to your core
premise, we need to adjust labour to the right clearing level, either
with the deflation, or rising asset prices without wage rises. this is
how the cost of gas, food, and commodities actually do the job!
standards of living fall
09:16:39 ME : the larger reason why stocks are not where
you want to be in the aggregate capital structure
I'm not a fan of that (standard of living falling)
and that is absolutely a qualitative question
what kind of world do we want to live in?
one with a middle class or without a middle class?
one with political stability or one with
rebellions, potentially revolutions and breakdown in social order?
these are absolutely the questions on the table
the last 3 years is the BEGINNING of the
chicken's coming home to roost!!
30 years of policy impact
printing money, deficit spending, put on
asset prices are just temporary salves with massive long term costs
without addressing those larger questions
and it is the beginning of the end game
so the time is indeed now
productive capacity got built based on
massive distortions from gov't interventions
naturally that productive capacity is not an
actual productive use of capital
supporting that structure is throwing more
good money after good money after good money... after bad
its really not that complicated
making disposable trinkets (to paraphrase
you) at elevated prices to sell to people whose incomes you've taken
away is a very short game
short term boost to profits (making the
differential in labor costs)
but long term actually terrible for the business
so once again businesses have pursued the
suicide option
like an addict taking the kill shot of heroin
09:24:10 ME : the big banks need to be broken up
glass steagall needs to be reimposed
the media concentrations that have been
allowed need to be rolled back
more vigorous anti-trust concepts need to be enforced
massive prosecutions for fraud
actually put some morality back in the system
campaign finance reform - public financing
and the trade agreements need to be torn up,
renegotiated including a mandate to produce according to some total
standard of production environment of the importing country
meaning workplace protections, environmental
protections and something about the standard of living
that is actually the agenda that is in the
best interests of EVERYBODY in the long term
INCLUDING BIG BUSINESS
THAT IS CALLED THE GREATER GOOD AGENDA, MY FRIEND!
ENLIGHTENED SELF INTEREST AGENDA!!
<<POUNDING SHOE ON LECTERN>>
09:28:41 FRIEND 3 : hahah
09:30:58 ME : put that into your piece
09:34:40 FRIEND 3 : you've got some thoughts alright!
09:35:21 ME : dude, finance capitalism failed in 2008
it killed itself
putting humpty dumpty back together again is
disastrous, since it is based (as you casually implicitly assert) on
notions of monetizing the arbitrage potential in the differential in
the standard of living between the United States
fascist police states with proletarian populations
the immorality is staggering
09:37:18 FRIEND 3 : true, but we spent it buying farting bush
dolls...i am suggesting we spend it hiring a (probably chinese)
construction firm to build me a new effing airport and a high speed
rail link to get me there in 15minutes....no more china made coach
handbags and farting bush dolls
09:37:25 ME : the betrayal of core american principles is staggering
my blood pressure is through the roof
socialism for the rich and capitalism for
the poor is the mosty immoral world i can even fathom
09:44:15 FRIEND 3 : my sister gave me a copy of it couldnt
happen here a couple years ago....only got half way through, but it's
a real tongue in cheek jab at how nazism couldnt happen in the us
09:44:35 ME : the road to serfdom
by friedrich von hayek
no one over thinks 'it can happen here'
and yet it does
but lets talk about kim kardashian instead!
Monday, November 29, 2010
also right on cue
Leaked U.S. Cables Expose Tensions With China
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704584804575644031813953758.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
sort of amazing the timing of this Wikileaks dump, isn't it? Given the Chinese spanking Obama at the G20, the 'mystery missile', the Korean provocations, China and Russia dropping the Dollar in trade settlement... and now this? I'm sure it's a coincidence!!
right on cue
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/29/news/economy/federal_pay_freeze/index.htm?hpt=T1&iref=BN1
let me emphasize the political strategy being employed here. Dems/establishment ceding 'ownership' of economy to the Repubs/establishment in a setup for 2012. In turn balancing the demands of foreign creditors with domestic political opposition.
also here...
Obama Proposes Freeze
Obama proposed a two-year salary freeze for all federal civilian employees, ahead of negotiations with Congress on deficit-cutting that are likely to dominate Washington next year.
and observe how the media is happy to play ball and push the 'deficit cutting' meme...
let me emphasize the political strategy being employed here. Dems/establishment ceding 'ownership' of economy to the Repubs/establishment in a setup for 2012. In turn balancing the demands of foreign creditors with domestic political opposition.
also here...
Obama Proposes Freeze
on Federal-Worker Pay
Obama proposed a two-year salary freeze for all federal civilian employees, ahead of negotiations with Congress on deficit-cutting that are likely to dominate Washington next year.and observe how the media is happy to play ball and push the 'deficit cutting' meme...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
it's the labor/capital dynamic, stupid
07:06:24 ME : http://www.zerohedge.com/article/quantitative-easing-explained
07:10:31 *** FRIEND 2 acknowledged the chat request.
10:48:48 ME : http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-explains-why-bernanke-and-china-are-engaged-game-global-chicken-whose-downsid
10:49:02 ME : i think i beat him to this analysis
10:54:18 FRIEND 2 : I think as long as china artificially suppresses the value of their currency, they cannot complain too loudly. They keep it low to create export jobs. We need jobs too
10:56:43 ME : you're misattributing
10:56:53 ME : you’re looking at a symptom
10:57:10 ME : the factories would just roll out to the next impoverished place
10:57:18 ME : already happening
10:57:29 ME : roll out
10:58:13 ME : 'free trade' and 'international economics' are just dogmas
10:58:42 ME : void of any real foundational theory at least as far as they are currently constructed
10:58:57 ME : we live in an industrial./post industrial world
10:59:07 FRIEND 2 : we need freely traded currencies which reflect economic strengths and weaknesses. Any attempt to artificially impact the value creates imbalances. China
10:59:16 ME : where labor cost and regulatory environments are the main costs to production
10:59:52 ME : i object to the implicit definition of 'we' as a unified interest
11:00:14 ME : i object to the implicit definition of 'china' as a monolithic unified entity as well
11:00:19 ME : that is the misattribution
11:01:14 ME : international trade is based on arbitraging living standards on the labor force
11:01:25 ME : as well as seeking the lowest regulatory cost
11:01:45 ME : in effect rolling back the advances made by the historically democratic capitalist western economies
11:01:54 ME : and returning the world to plutocracy/serfdom
11:02:00 FRIEND 2 : we use the dollar. they use the yuan. I am not suggesting we are unified in the way we or they think, only the currency we and they use
11:02:21 ME : 'they' are doing this, 'we' are doing that
11:02:48 ME : the nation-state analysis is an obfuscation of the real dynamic in the world economy
11:02:56 ME : sorry to use such strong language
11:03:02 ME : it is not directed at you personally
11:03:18 ME : and i have been guilty of it as well
11:03:29 ME : buying into the soap operatic day to day piece of us and them
11:03:36 ME : as it plays out on the international stage
11:03:39 ME : with the various actors
11:04:03 FRIEND 2 : china was an emerging economy. they will soon rival us for influence on a global scale. does the US
11:04:31 ME : i suggest spending some time evaluating the causes of that last statement
11:04:49 ME : the U.S.
11:05:07 FRIEND 2 : no offense taken. i get frustrated as the US
11:05:09 ME : the 'powers that be' here have in fact perpetuated that very dynamic you attribute to the chinese
11:05:11 ME : !
11:05:47 ME : it’s the classic labor/capital framework
11:05:55 ME : that is relevant
11:06:10 ME : the trade agreements are the most anti-democratic documents ever perpetuated on the world
11:07:19 ME : please refute my postulate!
11:07:39 FRIEND 2 : I am in the middle of a trade inquiry. back soon
11:08:43 ME : it all ties together quite nicely
11:08:59 ME : the electoral/campaign process has been completely coopted by special interests
11:11:32 ME : the special interests represent the big businesses that have 'offshored' u.s. manufacturing jobs enabled by the enaction of the trade agreements championed by the big business lobbies]
11:12:27 ME : profits have accrued to management, shareholders and the various chinese entities that had to be 'cut in' to the profit participation to have access to the proletarian chinese workforce/population
11:12:41 ME : mainly the chinese military and communist party officials
11:13:03 ME : the new faces of 'capitalism'!!
11:14:42 ME : in an effective quid pro quo, gov't incents the financial sector to create/provide credit to the american population in order to offset the income shock of the above
11:15:37 ME : and provide a put on asset prices when the inevitable ponzi scheme from that dynamic breaks down
11:15:47 ME : that's exactly what has happened
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)